LABOR

Improvement of liability forecasting for education awards
Corporation for National and Community Service

Econometrica is assisting CNCS in the design and implementation of enhancements to the model used to forecast liability incurred by the National Service Trust (the Trust) as AmeriCorps members are enrolled. AmeriCorps is one of three national service initiatives run by CNCS, a government corporation that provides grants and other incentives to states, local municipalities, and nonprofit organizations to help communities meet certain needs. AmeriCorps provides education awards to individuals who complete a term of community service in one of its programs. The awards can be redeemed up to seven years after being issued, and are paid from the Trust that receives appropriations from Congress each year to cover such payments.

Econometrica’s effort is focusing on ways to improve the liability forecasting model by better incorporating dynamic effects. While it may be possible to address some of these dynamics by extrapolating trends or applying other statistical approaches, some of the trends are caused by external factors that have not been incorporated into the model.